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How much does a hotel cost today in terms of investment? The hotel investment market is experiencing a deadlock, but the rise seems to be around the corner

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Over the last three years, the prices of the Italian hospitality industry have risen sharply. This is what results from the observation of capital markets transactions. As pointed out by Domenico Basanisi, Head of Hotels Investment Properties of CBRE Italy, as well as advisor and partner of Medelhan, hotels are not sold by square meter, nor by rooms, but by performance. The price is, in fact, the result of the company’s performance. For this reason, a hotel can be considered a company with walls around. It follows that it is very difficult to determine the market price of a hotel today. In order to give answers, it is necessary to analyze the historical and prospective performances. It is therefore a system with many facets, which only precise data and numbers allow to square.

Image copyright: @CBRE Group
Image copyright: @CBRE Group

Considering the occupancy, the ADR – that is the average price per room – and the RevPAR – that is the revenue generated per room available – over the years 2019, 2022 and 2023 emerges a precise picture. Placing the highlight on the five-star segment in particular – namely the most multifaceted one, as it includes both affordable luxury and extra luxury – it is evident that, compared to the pre pandemic phase, occupancy has suffered a slight decrease. A different discourse must be made for the three-star hotels, many of which during the pandemic have closed or turned into something else, leaving a favourable situation for those which have resisted.   

Overall, in Italy the average decrease is -1% compared to 2019, therefore in line with a number that at the time was the best of the last decade. Another fundamental data is the increase of ADR, especially on high-end, with a constant double digit growth in the post pandemic phase. Finally, RevPAR, to be considered as the general product, saw a +48% compared to 2019. This means a significant increase in profit margins.

Image copyright: @CBRE Group
Image copyright: @CBRE Group

From the point of view of markets and investments, the situation is opposite to the picture just drawn. The slowdown is evident on all asset classes, from real estate to logistics. These data are the result of the macro situation we are experiencing, where interest rates are so high that investors are forced to wait. In the hospitality sector in particular, there is a positive atmosphere, and everyone only waits for the right moment to buy. Looking at a cross-section of the asset classes, we see that in 2022 the hotel industry represented 13% of the total transaction – which was 11.7 billion – while this year it represents 18% of a total transaction of 2.2. billion. Therefore, the hotel continues to account for about one fifth of the total market volume.

Looking at yields, we can see that from 2011 until the pre pandemic phase the decline has been constant. Since summer 2021, there has been a rather sharp rise due to the yield on government bonds. What investors claim is that, when you buy an asset class that includes implicit risk, then it must necessarily have a higher return. This is why hotels have grown by 50 BPS in recent years. The other asset classes also saw a decisive increase, with logistics in particular – this latter has grown by 135 BPS. These increases are due to the doubts about occupancy and to the emerging of smart working. What we know for sure about the hotel asset class are the present and future performances, which tell us how this stalemate is simply due to a mathematical situation, therefore to numbers, rates and financing.

Image copyright: @CBRE Group
Image copyright: @CBRE Group

One more interesting data concerns the type of investor or investment. In particular, the dominance of value-add transactions has grown over the past five years. In fact, existing unbranded hotels are bought and, with new management and a solid label, they are resold after a few years. This discourse also pertains to conversions, which on the Italian territory have been numerous, especially in Rome. For this semester there was also a small recovery on core investments, that is on the purchase of income goods, already provided with a tenant and a long-term contract. This includes family offices and student hotels, the only cash buyers who today buy full equity. 

Image copyright: @CBRE Group
Image copyright: @CBRE Group

Observing the evolution of the offer in terms of luxury, it emerges that in the last four years Rome has had a remarkable activity. We can actually affirm that it is the most active market in Italy in terms of new openings. Among the many examples that can be mentioned, the Rosewood hotel, former headquarters of the BNL bank, is still today the most expensive single asset ever transacted in Italy. Historically, in Italy’s capital city there has always been a branding gap, which has been bridged only in the last few years. Among others, the absence of a Four Season clashed with the influx of Americans in Rome. Finally, turning to the more general panorama, we see that many resorts are opening, which is a good sign as it is a valued segment in transactions. Among the hottest markets we must cite Lake Como, Sardinia and Cortina, this latter especially in view of 2026. There are also new openings in Venice, Milan and Florence, where the luxury offer is becoming more and more complete.

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